T
TubeFolio
Back to Dashboard

The Riskiest Earnings Season So Far

Joseph Carlson After Hours•Oct 12, 2026

Summary

Joseph explains that the current earnings season is particularly significant because high growth is already priced into the market. Joseph notes that while rising bond yields typically pressure stocks, the market has remained resilient due to the anticipated 35% weighted growth of the S&P 500. Joseph attributes the vast majority of this growth to the technology and energy sectors, while traditional sectors like consumer staples show much slower progress.

ASML: Joseph considers this his fifth-largest position and expects massive revenue growth of 50-55% this quarter. Joseph argues that the company holds a widening monopoly on high-end chip-making equipment that will last for at least a decade. Joseph notes that while the stock is not a 'deal' at a 33 forward P/E, he remains fully invested for the long term.
Meta (META): Joseph is increasingly bullish on Meta, claiming it is now leading the pack in the AI race with its new 'Muse Wonder' model. Joseph states that Meta is the only company providing a truly personalized AI agent, which adds a significant layer to its existing moat. Joseph believes the stock is still undervalued and should trade at a higher multiple of 26 to 27 times forward earnings.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): Joseph highlights TSM as a monopolistic force in the semiconductor industry that benefits regardless of which chip designer wins. Joseph points out that the stock is more reasonably priced than ASML, trading at a 21 forward P/E ratio. Joseph maintains that the path ahead for the next ten years is incredibly fruitful as AI and robotics drive chip demand.
JP Morgan (JPM): Joseph views JP Morgan as a premier market leader with a very conservative financial profile and a strong CET1 ratio of 14%. Joseph notes that the bank's net interest income and loan growth remain healthy despite fluctuating treasury rates. Joseph admits that selling his previous position was a mistake, as the company continues to exhibit tech-like growth characteristics.
United Healthcare (UNH): Joseph explains his decision to avoid the stock due to the inherent regulatory risks and negative customer sentiment surrounding the health insurance industry. Joseph mentions that despite being a Buffett favorite, the high margins of insurance companies compared to hospitals create long-term legislative concerns. Joseph views it as a deep-value turnaround play that does not fit his investment criteria.
Domino's (DPZ): Joseph expresses a lack of bullishness for Domino's, arguing that third-party delivery apps have neutralized the company's historical delivery advantage. Joseph states that since consumers can now order any cuisine with ease, the unique value proposition of pizza delivery has been diluted. Joseph believes the competitive landscape has shifted permanently against the older delivery-centric business models.

Mentioned Stocks

META
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Joseph is very bullish on Meta, stating the stock is undervalued and should trade at 26-27 forward earnings. Joseph points to the new 'Muse Wonder' AI model as a sign that Meta is catching up to OpenAI and Claude. Joseph believes their personalized AI agent creates a unique competitive advantage.

Loading chart...
ASML
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Joseph highlights ASML as a high-conviction holding despite its high valuation at a 33 forward PE ratio. Joseph argues that ASML has an expanding monopoly in EUV lithography and expects massive 89% EPS growth. Joseph believes the technological moat is a decade ahead of any competitor.

Loading chart...
TSM
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Joseph views TSM as an essential monopolistic player in the AI hardware chain. Joseph notes that it is more reasonably valued than ASML at 21 forward earnings. Joseph expects continued growth over the next 10 years driven by the proliferation of AI devices.

Loading chart...
JPM
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Joseph describes JP Morgan as a high-quality bank with exceptional management and a very conservative loan profile. Joseph highlights their 14% CET1 ratio as a sign of financial strength. Joseph believes the company is set up well for current interest rate conditions.

Loading chart...
UNH
Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Joseph decides to stay out of United Healthcare because he dislikes the health insurance business model and the associated regulatory risks. Joseph notes that the high margins relative to healthcare providers could attract political scrutiny. Joseph avoids companies where customer sentiment is generally negative.

Loading chart...
DPZ
Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Joseph is not bullish on Domino's, arguing that the competitive advantage of their delivery network has been erased by DoorDash and Uber Eats. Joseph states that the availability of diverse food delivery options reduces the market share of pizza-specific delivery. Joseph views this as a fundamental downgrade in their business operation.

Loading chart...