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10 Stocks To Buy! Value Investing Quadrant October 2026

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.•Oct 4, 2026

Summary

Sven provides an update on the Value Investing Quadrant, a framework used by Sven to evaluate investments based on risk and return. Sven argues that the S&P 500 is currently expensive, offering a poor risk-reward ratio with expected annual returns of only 3-4%. Sven emphasizes a focus on fundamental data and owner earnings, noting that Sven's own model portfolio has achieved a 15% annual return over the last eight years by following these principles.

Sven critiques several high-profile stocks and market segments:

Tesla: Sven argues that Tesla's valuation is built on promises and "miracles" rather than tangible profits from car sales. Sven states that this lack of sustainability makes the stock a poor investment with an expected return of zero. Sven warns that the current hype will likely end poorly for investors.
ASML: Sven states that ASML is significantly overvalued with a P/E ratio of 60. Sven calculates that to justify its current market capitalization of 610 billion, the company would need to double its net profit multiple times over the next 15 to 20 years. Sven views this as an unrealistic expectation and classifies the stock as too risky at current prices, noting that an intrinsic value based on slower growth would be much lower than the current market price.
Berkshire Hathaway: Sven argues that compared to other opportunities, Berkshire Hathaway is currently a "sell." While Sven acknowledges the company's low risk and strong balance sheet, Sven calculates a projected 10-year return that is not significantly higher than 10-year Treasuries. Sven notes that with 6% expected growth and a P/E of 17, the upside is limited compared to the current valuation.
Meta Platforms: Sven argues that Meta presents a more compelling opportunity than many other tech giants, with potential returns approaching 10%. Sven states that even with a conservative growth estimate of 8%, the stock's valuation is reasonable. Sven classifies Meta as having higher risk than the general market but offering a much better potential return profile.
Realty Income: Sven highlights Realty Income as an attractive investment that offers a potential 10% future return. Sven states that the risk for this REIT is lower than the overall market risk. Sven views this as a high-quality value play for investors seeking stable returns.
Kaspi: Sven highlights Kaspi as a high-growth, high-return opportunity that Sven is currently considering for a diversified portfolio. Sven states that its combination of growth and return potential makes it a strong candidate for the value-investing pillar of a portfolio.

Mentioned Stocks

META
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Sven argues that Meta's valuation is attractive despite the risk. Sven calculates that with 8% growth and current dividend distributions, the stock offers a return potential approaching 10%, making it superior to many other tech stocks in Sven's quadrant.

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ASML
Sentiment: SELLAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Sven states that ASML is too expensive at a P/E of 60. Sven calculates that for the current price to make sense, the company must double its profits repeatedly for 20 years. Sven finds the intrinsic value to be much lower (around 1,600 units in Sven's model vs higher current market pricing) if more realistic growth rates are applied.

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TSLA
Sentiment: SELLAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Sven argues that Tesla lacks sustainable profits from its core business and relies on promises. Sven assigns it a zero percent return expectation and warns viewers that it is not a sustainable investment from a value perspective.

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BRK.B
Sentiment: SELLAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Sven explicitly labels Berkshire a 'sell' compared to other opportunities. Sven calculates that with 6% growth and a P/E of 17, the future market cap in 10 years would only be 1.3 trillion, which offers very little upside from its current nearly 1 trillion dollar valuation.

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KSPI
Sentiment: BUY

Reasoning: Sven highlights Kaspi as a company with high growth and high potential returns. Sven mentions that Sven is personally considering adding Kaspi to Sven's diversified portfolio, although no transaction was executed today.

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O
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Sven states that Realty Income looks like it will provide a 10% future return. Sven views the risk as being lower than the general market risk, making it a high-conviction addition to the lower-risk/higher-return section of Sven's quadrant.

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