My Biggest Concern Going Into Nvidia's Earnings Tomorrow

Couch Investor•Aug 25, 2026

Summary

CouchInvestor states that Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is the most critical event for the market, with expectations set for triple-digit growth in both revenue and earnings per share. CouchInvestor argues that the current valuation is not expensive compared to big tech peers, especially considering that trailing and forward price-to-free-cash-flow multiples remain at reasonable levels. CouchInvestor notes that the "circular financing" bear thesis—where Nvidia invests in companies that then buy Nvidia chips—is actually a strategic move to ensure the health and growth of the AI ecosystem over the next five to ten years.

CouchInvestor highlights that capital expenditure from hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google, and Meta is expected to reach $1.4 trillion by 2028, which provides a massive runway for Nvidia's data center business. CouchInvestor argues that even as token prices for AI models drop, the demand for GPU hours will increase because the cost per outcome is decreasing, making AI more accessible for enterprises. CouchInvestor states that the long-term thesis remains intact as long as Nvidia maintains its lead in total cost of ownership and technological innovation under the leadership of Jensen Huang.

Nvidia (NVDA): CouchInvestor states that the company is expected to grow revenue by 100% year-over-year this quarter and has a consistent track record of beating Wall Street estimates. CouchInvestor argues that the stock is currently undervalued, with a conservative DCF analysis suggesting a price target 17.4% higher than current levels. CouchInvestor predicts that while the market may be volatile post-earnings, the long-term trajectory for Nvidia remains bullish due to its dominance in the AI chip market.

Nebius (NBIS): CouchInvestor states that Nebius is a key "NeoCloud" player that will benefit from renting out high-performance Nvidia GPUs to developers. CouchInvestor notes that Nvidia holds a significant equity stake in Nebius, which was disclosed in recent regulatory filings. CouchInvestor argues that as the AI market expands, specialized cloud providers like Nebius will see margin expansion by selling compute time more efficiently than traditional providers.

Marvell (MRVL): CouchInvestor states that Marvell is a significant player in the semiconductor space that often moves in sympathy with Nvidia's results. CouchInvestor notes that Marvell is scheduled to report its own quarterly figures on Thursday, just one day after Nvidia. CouchInvestor argues that investors should pay close attention to Nvidia's guidance, as it will likely serve as a leading indicator for the demand Marvell sees in its networking and custom silicon segments.

Mentioned Stocks

NVDA

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: CouchInvestor argues that Nvidia is undervalued with a probability-weighted price target that is 17.4% higher than the current price. CouchInvestor points to the 100% year-over-year revenue growth expectations and the fact that forward valuation multiples are not excessive compared to other big tech companies. CouchInvestor also believes the circular financing concerns are overstated and that Nvidia's role at the center of the AI buildout ensures long-term dominance.

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NBIS

Sentiment: BUY

Reasoning: CouchInvestor identifies Nebius as a direct beneficiary of the AI infrastructure cycle. CouchInvestor highlights that Nvidia has substantial investments in the company and that Nebius's business model of renting out GPUs will become more profitable as utilization remains high despite falling token prices.

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MRVL

Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: CouchInvestor mentions Marvell in the context of the semiconductor industry's reaction to Nvidia's earnings. CouchInvestor notes that Marvell reports earnings shortly after Nvidia and advises watching Nvidia's guidance as a proxy for Marvell's near-term performance potential.

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