Costco Stock: Higher Oil Prices are Bringing Customers to Costco
Summary
Parkev analyzes Costco's recent financial performance, highlighting a 10.7% increase in net sales and an 8.9% rise in comparable store sales. Parkev explains that while higher gas prices drive traffic, they contribute little to the thin 3.82% operating profit margin, which is strategically kept low to maintain customer trust and a low-cost reputation. Parkev notes that Costco's sales per location are best-in-class, achieving nearly 50% of Walmart's total sales with only 10% of the number of locations.
Parkev emphasizes that Costco is a resilient, non-cyclical business that attracts value-conscious shoppers during economic downturns, making it a favorite for long-term investors. However, Parkev points out that the stock's current forward price-to-earnings ratio of 43 makes it more expensive than many high-growth tech stocks. Parkev also mentions that the management team is conservative with expansion, opening only about 30 new locations per year to avoid cannibalizing existing store sales.
Mentioned Stocks
Reasoning: Parkev reiterates a hold rating because the stock is fundamentally overvalued despite being an excellent business. Parkev calculated a fair value estimate of $757 using a discounted cash flow model, which is significantly lower than the current market price of $967. Parkev notes that the forward P/E of 43 is historically high and expensive compared to big tech, though Parkev acknowledges that Costco's non-cyclical nature and high sales per location justify a premium valuation for long-term holders.