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Costco Stock: Higher Oil Prices are Bringing Customers to Costco

Parkev Tatevosian, CFAAug 22, 2026

Summary

Parkev analyzes Costco's recent financial performance, highlighting a 10.7% increase in net sales and an 8.9% rise in comparable store sales. Parkev explains that while higher gas prices drive traffic, they contribute little to the thin 3.82% operating profit margin, which is strategically kept low to maintain customer trust and a low-cost reputation. Parkev notes that Costco's sales per location are best-in-class, achieving nearly 50% of Walmart's total sales with only 10% of the number of locations.

Parkev emphasizes that Costco is a resilient, non-cyclical business that attracts value-conscious shoppers during economic downturns, making it a favorite for long-term investors. However, Parkev points out that the stock's current forward price-to-earnings ratio of 43 makes it more expensive than many high-growth tech stocks. Parkev also mentions that the management team is conservative with expansion, opening only about 30 new locations per year to avoid cannibalizing existing store sales.

Costco (COST): Parkev maintains a HOLD rating on the stock, noting that while it is an excellent business, the current market price of approximately $967 is well above the calculated fair value. Parkev used a discounted cash flow model to estimate a fair value of $757 per share, indicating the stock is currently overvalued. Parkev suggests that while the stock is rarely cheap, a more attractive entry point would be when the forward P/E drops toward 30, but existing shareholders should feel comfortable holding due to the company's long-term performance history.

Mentioned Stocks

COST
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Parkev reiterates a hold rating because the stock is fundamentally overvalued despite being an excellent business. Parkev calculated a fair value estimate of $757 using a discounted cash flow model, which is significantly lower than the current market price of $967. Parkev notes that the forward P/E of 43 is historically high and expensive compared to big tech, though Parkev acknowledges that Costco's non-cyclical nature and high sales per location justify a premium valuation for long-term holders.

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