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Taiwan Semiconductor Stock: Does the Booming Revenue Outweigh Geopolitical Risk? | TSM Stock

Parkev Tatevosian, CFAAug 22, 2026

Summary

Parkev provides a comprehensive analysis of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), highlighting a massive surge in revenue driven by the AI boom. Parkev notes that revenue has climbed from $25 billion in 2017 to over $143 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. A key driver for this growth is the rise of agentic AI, which is increasing demand for CPUs and accelerators. Parkev emphasizes that TSM's business model as a pure-play foundry is superior to competitors like Intel because it does not compete with its own customers, such as Apple and Nvidia.

Parkev acknowledges that management expects a slight decline in operating margins (targeting around 53% gross profit margins long-term) as the company expands manufacturing into the United States, which is less profitable than its Taiwan-based operations. However, Parkev remains optimistic due to the company's exceptional Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 34-35%, which significantly exceeds its cost of capital. Parkev believes the current valuation, with a forward P/E of 19, fails to reflect the company's true value, largely due to geopolitical concerns.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM): Parkev reiterates a buy rating for the stock, noting that its current market price of $412 is significantly below its intrinsic value. Parkev updated his discounted cash flow (DCF) model and raised his fair value estimate to $613 per share. Parkev predicts a potential upside of 49% over the next 12 to 18 months, citing the increasing capital expenditures of hyperscalers as a primary catalyst for future growth.

Mentioned Stocks

TSM
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Parkev reiterates a buy rating based on a fair value estimate of $613 per share, which implies a 49% upside from the current price of $412. Parkev argues that the company is experiencing an accelerating boom in demand from AI and agentic AI. Additionally, Parkev highlights the company's strong ROIC of 34-35% and its attractive forward P/E of 19, suggesting the stock is undervalued due to geopolitical risks that Parkev believes are surmountable.

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