Uber Stock is a Strong Buy + Ackman's Top Position

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.•Aug 18, 2026

Summary

Sven analyzes the investment strategy of Bill Ackman and focuses on Uber as a core position that could become the 'Amazon of logistics.' Sven notes that Uber has reached a major turning point by achieving GAAP profitability after burning over $40 billion since its inception. Sven emphasizes that while revenue growth is stabilizing, operating income and earnings per share are scaling rapidly at rates of 40% and 35% respectively.

Sven provides a detailed breakdown of Uber's financials, specifically adjusting free cash flow for stock-based compensation. Sven calculates that while the company reports high free cash flow, the true owner's earnings are closer to $4 billion after accounting for the actual cost of share dilution and buybacks. Sven presents an intrinsic value model with several scenarios:

UBER: Sven identifies Uber as a potential 10x compounder if it successfully becomes the global aggregator for autonomous vehicle fleets. Sven calculates an intrinsic value of $118 per share in a base-case scenario, assuming 20% growth for the first five years and a terminal price-to-earnings ratio of 20. Sven mentions that in an 'exuberant' scenario where Uber mirrors Amazon's success, the present value could be significantly higher than the current market price. However, Sven warns of risks including regulatory challenges, competition in markets like China and Brazil, and the possibility of vehicle fleets bypassing Uber's platform. Despite the positive outlook, Sven concludes that the stock is not a personal buy for Sven because it lacks a traditional margin of safety.

PSH (Pershing Square Holdings): Sven discusses Bill Ackman’s fund, noting that it has historically outperformed the S&P 500 over 23 years, though it has trailed slightly in the last decade. Sven points out that the fund trades at a significant discount to its net asset value (NAV), but cautions that high management and performance fees (1.5% and 16%) effectively account for much of that discount over the long term. Sven observes that Ackman is currently buying back shares and seeking high-growth companies with 15-20% EPS growth targets.

Mentioned Stocks

PSH

Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Sven notes that Pershing Square Holdings trades at a wide discount to its net asset value, which Ackman is attempting to narrow through share buybacks. However, Sven points out that the high fee structure (1.5% base and 16% performance) acts as a significant drag that justifies much of this discount. Sven acknowledges Ackman's long-term outperformance but remains neutral on the fund itself as a value play.

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UBER

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Sven believes Uber has a very positive risk-reward profile with the potential to return 3x to 10x over the next decade if it becomes the dominant platform for autonomous logistics. Sven calculates an intrinsic value of $118 per share based on 20% growth and scaling profitability. Although Sven is personally avoiding it due to a lack of margin of safety, Sven considers it a 'big yes' for investors willing to take on more technological risk.

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