If You Missed Palantir or Nvidia. This is Far Bigger.

Felix & Friends (Goat Academy)•Aug 14, 2026

Summary

Felix provides a comprehensive analysis of the quantum computing market, asserting that the industry is entering a 'post-mania' phase where real technology is being built quietly. Felix structures the opportunity into three tiers: safe 'picks and shovels' plays, pure-plays with revenue, and high-risk 'lottery tickets.' Felix emphasizes that the involvement of the American government, which recently invested $2 billion into nine companies, serves as a significant strategic underwriter for the sector.

Felix highlights that technical hurdles, such as high error rates, are being solved by engineering breakthroughs from companies like Google and IBM. Felix warns investors that while the technology is the future, risk management is essential due to the 45-70% drawdowns seen in the past year. Felix advises that the best way to invest now is to focus on the 'plumbing' of the industry rather than just the speculative stories.

IBM: Felix identifies IBM as a Tier 1 safe play, noting that they received $1 billion in government funding to build a quantum wafer factory in New York. Felix highlights their acquisition of HRL and their roadmap to deliver the 'Starling' error-corrected quantum computer by 2029. Felix views IBM as a stable generator of cash that can afford heavy research and development in this space.

Google (GOOGL): Felix classifies Google as a top-tier investment, especially after their 'Willow' chip demonstrated that scaling up hardware can actually reduce error rates. Felix points out that the CEO's bullish comparison of quantum to AI's trajectory five years ago is a major validation for the industry. Felix notes that Google's massive cash reserves of $370 billion make it a resilient player in the quantum race.

Honeywell (HON): Felix recommends Honeywell as a lower-risk entry into quantum computing because of its majority stake in Quantinuum. Felix notes that Quantinuum's hardware was recently physically installed in Oracle's cloud data centers, proving its commercial viability. Felix argues that investors get the quantum upside 'for free' while owning a profitable, stable industrial business.

IonQ (IONQ): Felix describes IonQ as a Tier 2 pure-play that is successfully transitioning to a commercial model with 287% revenue growth. Felix mentions their $500 million order backlog and their strategic move to bring manufacturing in-house by acquiring a photonics business. However, Felix cautions that the company is still burning cash and remains a high-risk growth stock.

Rigetti (RGTI): Felix remains cautious on Rigetti and states he would not touch the stock until it breaks the $20 price level. Felix notes that while they have government support and are nearing a break-even point, the current market setup does not yet justify a new position. Felix uses Rigetti as an example of why waiting for a confirmed breakout is better than buying into a falling trend.

Mentioned Stocks

GOOGL

Sentiment: BUYAction: BOUGHT

Reasoning: Felix explicitly states that he personally owns Google. Felix believes Google is a leader in the space, citing the CEO's comparison of quantum computing to AI five years ago and the technical success of the Willow chip in reducing error rates.

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IONQ

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Felix is positive on IonQ's massive 287% revenue growth and half-billion dollar order backlog. Felix states that the company is successfully vertically integrating by buying its own manufacturing foundries, though it remains a speculative growth play.

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RGTI

Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Felix advises waiting on Rigetti until the stock price breaks above $20. Felix states that while the company is showing fundamental progress and government support, he is currently cautious and prefers to wait for a stronger technical setup.

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QBTS

Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Felix has demoted D-Wave from his top picks list. Felix notes that while the bull case for their annealing technology still exists, he prefers other opportunities in the sector at this time.

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IBM

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Felix recommends IBM as a 'safe play' due to its $1 billion government backing and its industrial-scale manufacturing approach. Felix notes their plan to produce error-corrected computers by 2029 and their acquisition of HRL for spin qubit technology.

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HON

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Felix views Honeywell as a favorite lower-risk play because it owns a majority stake in Quantinuum. Felix highlights that their technology is already being physically integrated into Oracle's cloud infrastructure, providing exposure to quantum growth within a stable industrial stock.

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