Bill Ackman Just Bought 6 New Stocks
Summary
Joseph analyzes the Q2 report from Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square, noting a significant overlap between Ackman's new positions and Joseph's existing portfolio. Joseph argues that the market has unfairly punished high-quality companies due to temporary narratives, such as engagement concerns at Netflix or AI disruption fears at S&P Global. Joseph emphasizes that 90% of S&P 500 companies contributed less than 2% of the year-to-date returns, suggesting a massive opportunity in "left behind" quality stocks.
Joseph structures the analysis around several key holdings:
Mentioned Stocks
Reasoning: Joseph views Meta as a clear winner in the AI race through better monetization and content curation. Joseph states that whenever the forward PE ratio is between 10 and 20, it is a historically great time to own the stock.
Reasoning: Joseph is extremely bullish on the global payment network, viewing stablecoins and AI agents as catalysts for more volume rather than threats. Joseph highlights his own 89% return on the position and agrees with Bill Ackman's recent purchase of both Mastercard and Visa.
Reasoning: Joseph believes Netflix has won the streaming war and remains highly predictable. Joseph points out that engagement fears are a result of geographic shifts in the user base rather than a loss of quality. Joseph notes that Bill Ackman re-entered at roughly $74, and Joseph expects 20% annual earnings growth.
Reasoning: Joseph supports Bill Ackman's entry into the Intercontinental Exchange, noting its simple, predictable, and free-cash-flow generative nature. Joseph believes it benefits from favorable macro tailwinds and secular growth in futures and options.
Reasoning: Joseph highlights Alcon as a dominant ophthalmology company with high-margin recurring revenue from its massive surgical install base. Joseph agrees with the thesis that its earnings will grow in the mid-teens, leading to multiple expansion.
Reasoning: Joseph argues that AI fears related to Claude are significantly overstated as they only impact a tiny fraction of revenue. Joseph highlights that the valuation recently hit a 5-year low of 19x PE, making it a bargain for such a high-quality business. Joseph views the benchmark business as a durable moat.
Reasoning: Joseph argues the market is being too pessimistic about autonomous vehicle competition. Joseph notes Uber is growing earnings at 35% while trading at only 19 times earnings, which Joseph considers a significant disconnect from fundamentals.